The conclusions are that a hard Brexit would potentially be very costly in the Swedish economy.
- It is still far too early to reject the scenario of a hard Brexit, due to many complicated tied up knots to untie. That is why Brexit is still a dark cloud affecting Sweden, says Andreas Hatzigeorgiou.
During a period of around two years, from March 2019 until end year 2020, a so called hard Brexit would reduce Sweden’s GDP with around 18 billion SEK. Of the 8 200 lost jobs, it is estimated that Stockholm would carry around 2 100 of those.
- Brexit risks to affect both Sweden, as well as our capital region negatively. The Stockholm region is the growth engine of Sweden, and we see among others how the financial sector and services sector could be very badly affected because of Brexit. We now have a time window which I believe the government should take advantage of to work on necessary reforms that will strengthen the business climate and will equip businesses resistance-level to reduce the effects of Brexit. The government must take action to solve the labor shortage by providing better conditions to recruit global talents, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou says.
James Nixon, European chief economist at Oxford Economics, notes that in case of a hard Brexit, Great Britain would be hurt the most.
- Great Britain is a rather small economy which trades with an economy the size of a continent, where Sweden has historically been a very important trading partner. In the scenario of a hard Brexit, no other country will be as badly hurt as Great Britain, James Nixon says.
Download and read the whole report 8 200 jobs Lost Jobs – The Cost of Brexit for Sweden and Stockholm